The EURUSD is not the only currency pair to squeeze back higher. The GBPUSD has also moved to the upside and tests the 50% of the days range and the converged 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The level comes in at the 1.5992 (for the 50% ) and the 1.5996 level for the 100 and 200 bar MA.
These levels should solicit some selling pressure with 1.5974 -79 as downside support. Should this level hold, the pair will likely squeeze higher. A move below this area makes the trading for the day more difficult as both bulls and bears would be frustrated.
S & P notes increased risk to Greeces Budgetary Position
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 07:05 AM PDT
Despite the negative from S&P, the EURUSD has risen and is above the 38.2% of the days trading range at the 1.4085. Just above that level is the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.4091. This would be another level for the bears to sell against. A move above would not be welcomed.
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 07:01 AM PDT
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:36 AM PDT
S&P lowers Portugal to BBB- for BBB, A-3 at S&P , Outlook negative.
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:36 AM PDT
The rating was BBB. S& P also removed Portugal from negative credit watch.
The Portuguese bond yields have increased to 8.74% from 8.49% last week and 7.68% at the end of the March 18th week.
The downgrade from S&P was somewhat expected given S&P downgrade of Portuguese banks including the Portuguese division of Banco Santander and Banco Espirito Santo.
US Consumer Confidence Due at 10AM
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:25 AM PDT
USDJPY moves toward key 100 day MA
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:24 AM PDT
The 100 day MA comes in at 82.60 in the USDJPY. This level should find profit taking sellers with stops on a move above the key level.
The price in the USDJPY has been below the level since March 11th, the day of the earthquake and tsunami.
Taking a look at the hourly chart for the pair, the price formed a bull flag for the pair and targets the 82.50 for the move. This too should give profit taking sellers another reason to take some gains in their trading.
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:06 AM PDT
The Case Schiller confirm numbers in the existing home sales data and the new home sales data that was released last week. That is, home prices are continuing to fall. If you recall New Home sales median price fell to $202k from $234K. Exisiting home sales median price fell to $156K from $158K.
Foreclose homes keep on entering in the market and this keeps buyers in charge. This makes it difficult for conventional home sales to take place. Eighteen of twenty cities showed price declines. The largest YoY decline came in Phoenix with a 9.1% fall. Washington showed the largest YoY increase coming in at +3.6%.
Should employment continue to rise, this may open the door for new buyers to come in and snap up low cost housing. However, with estimates of foreclosures rising by 20% in 2011 (RealtyTrac), the glut should continue and keep the price pressure on housing.
S&P CaseShiller Home Prices Fall
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:02 AM PDT
S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind: Actual: 140.86 Prior: 142.42 Revised: 142.34
S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA: Survey: -0.44% Actual: -.22% Prior: -0.41% Revised: -..39%
S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY): Survey: -3.20% Actual: -3.06% Prior: -2.38% Revised: -%
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 05:34 AM PDT
The German inflation for YoY came in at 2.2% which was as expected. The Flash estimate for CPI for the EU comes out on the 31st and is expected to show an unchanged reading of 2.4%. ECBs Trichet seems intent on raising rates at the April 7th meeting. Today ECBs Makuch spoke out of both sides of his mouth when he said a rate rise was highly probable but not certain. The market is expecting a 25 basis point rise to 1.25%. This will be the first change in rates since May 2009 when the rate was lowered to 1% from 1.25%
The Forex Morning Call for March 29th
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 05:24 AM PDT
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.29.2011
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 05:24 AM PDT
Good Morning:
Federal Reserve member Bullard stated overnight that the FOMC may not be able or willing to wait out the global uncertainties before the US satrts normalising it’s monetary ploicy.
The uncertainties that he is speaking about are:
1) Political unrest in Middle East and North Africa
2) Japanese crisis (earthquake and nuclear)
3) European sovereign debt problems
4) US deficit
US monetary officials seems to be more hawkish lately, but before any decisions the policy makers better be certain that the US economic recovery is on a positive path, and that consumer sentiment is improving and not deteriorating. With the price of gasoline rising daily (it sure seems like it), and rising global tensions on the political front-I think we may see weak consumer sentiment datalater this morning.
World equity markets traded lower-US Futures are higher at this time.
Oil:$103.14 Gold:$1415.80
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P/CASESHILLER HOME PRICE IND. | JAN. | 142.42′ | |||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P/CS 20 CITY MoM% SA | JAN. | -0.40% | -0.41% | ||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P/CS COMPOSITE -20 YoY | JAN. | -3.20% | -2.38% | ||
| 10:00A.M. | CONSUMER CONFIDENCE | MAR. | 65.O | 7O.4 | ||
HAVE A GOOD DAY & GOOD LUCK
ECB Makuch says rate increase in April NOT certain, but highly probable
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 04:42 AM PDT
- Situation in Portugal is serious but complicated and does pose a risk of contagion
- Rate increase is highly probable but NOT certain
- ECB vigilant on inflation
The comment is a bit ambiguous with “probable” but “not certain” used to describe the rate potential in April. The ECB meets on April 7th and the expectation from surveyed results is for a tightening of 25 basis points.
The EURUSD bounced off support at the 1.4059 and looks toward the channel trendline on the 5 minute chart. That level currently comes in at the 1.4077 level and coming down. A move above this level would next target the 1.4093 level where the 38.2% of the days range is found. Just above that is the 200 bar MA (1.4095 currently) on the 5 minute chart (see green line in the chart below). This is also resistance for the pair. If the price can stay below the 38.2% of a steep move to the downside (or upside), it will often be a clue, the downside may still have some momentum. Support remains at 1.4058, and below that the lows from Monday’s trade at the 1.4020-25 area.
S&P CaseShiller Data Due at 9AM
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 04:23 AM PDT
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