Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- AUDUSD breaks to new highs
- GBPUSD checks trendline on daily chart
- University of Michigan Confidence Drops
- EURUSD tests corrective resistance intraday and holds.
- AUDUSD wanders up to the 1.0255 high and stalls
- Gold tests 100 hour MA at $1432
- EURUSD moves lower. Looks to test 61.8% retracement.
- Fed’s Lockhart says he is ready to tighten on inflation
- GDP a touch higher than expected on Inventories
- Annualized GDP Rises, Core PCE & Personal Consumption Slightly Lower
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.25.2011
- Fed’s Fisher says liquidity is not just abundant but in excess
- The NY Opening Forex Call for March 25th
- Forex Wrap, Today at 12:30 PM. Register to attend.
- Report 6.2 Earthquake in Northeast Japan
| Posted: 25 Mar 2011 07:43 AM PDT The AUDUSD has broken to 29 year highs. I don’t have data going back that far, but that is what the newswires are saying so I believe it. The next level to target is 1.0306, the topside channel trendline (see chart below). Channel resistance levels have a way of attracting profit taking sellers. Be aware of the level. On the downside now, the 1.0255 level was the old 29 year high. The level down to 1.0220 will be eyed as support now.
As per the prior post, the pair did find some profit takers against the 1.0255 level. The corrective move to the downside could only make it down to the 1.0219 level, short of support at the 1.0211 remembered price (SEE PRIOR POST). This gave the bulls ammunition for the move to the highs and scared the shorts once again. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD checks trendline on daily chart Posted: 25 Mar 2011 07:17 AM PDT
The GBPUSD is moving toward trendline support at the 1.6042 level. Earlier today, the market found support buyers and the price rebounded modestly. This is the second check of the support. A break will next target the 38.2% of the move up from the December 2010 low off this daily chart. That comes in at the 1.5995 level.
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| University of Michigan Confidence Drops Posted: 25 Mar 2011 06:56 AM PDT
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| EURUSD tests corrective resistance intraday and holds. Posted: 25 Mar 2011 06:50 AM PDT
The EURUSD has moved higher off the lows and corrected toward the 38.2% of the move down from the most recent intradays high (at 1.4136). Also at the area was the initial low for the trading day at the 1.4139 level. The failure to extend above this level (and coming short of the days 38.2% retracement) should lead to lower levels and perhaps a break of the 61.8 off the hourly chart at 1.4111 A break of that level would next pave a move toward the 200 hour MA at the 1.4089 price currently (green line in the chart below).
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| AUDUSD wanders up to the 1.0255 high and stalls Posted: 25 Mar 2011 06:18 AM PDT
The bullish move in the AUDUSD continued today, wandering it’s way to the 1.0255 high set on the last trading day of 2010. The high today reached 1.0253 and profit takers sold. The price is now down below the high of yesterday at 1.0227. Yesterday, the price moved above resistant from the daily chart in between 1.0180 and 1.0200 (see daily chart above). The pair is not falling out of bed, but there is some profit taking occurring. The next level to get through would be the 1.0211 level and then the trendline at the 1.0187 (see chart below). Finally the 1.0180 level from the daily chart above. Given the bullishness for the pair these levels may prove to be a challenge but if broken, they should lead to more selling from technical traders.
The bias is still bullish so be careful. Much depends on global growth which is still on tract but could get derailed easily. So pay attention to the technicals to provide the clues. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold tests 100 hour MA at $1432 Posted: 25 Mar 2011 06:08 AM PDT
Gold was not able to sustain momentum above the 1435 level and this prompted a move back down to test the 100 hour MA. That moving average has now been tested on 7 separate hourly bars today and held each time. The level comes at $1432. A break below should solicit selling interest with the $1424.26. On the topside now, stay below $1435.89 keeps the bears in control today. A move above, and the downside potential is lessened. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD moves lower. Looks to test 61.8% retracement. Posted: 25 Mar 2011 06:00 AM PDT
The EURUSD started the week moving above the daily trendline (see chart above). This however, was reversed and when the price moved back below the topside trendline, the market used the trendline as resistance. Looking at the hourly chart today, the price action has turned to the downside after yesterday’s move back higher. The price today moved below the 100 hour MA and is now below the 50% of the move up from yesterday’s (and the weeks) low. The price approaches the 61.8% of that move at the 1.4116. Below that level is the 200 hour MA which comes in at the 1.4090 level. It is Friday. Anything can happen. These are targets that keep the pair still within the high and low trading range for the week.
Increases issues with Portugal continue to weigh on the pair. The 5 year bond yields continue to rise and stand at 8.49% currently, up from 8.22% yesterday at this time.
On the topside now, the 50% of the move up from yesterday is likely the topside resistance at 1.4136 (see hourly chart). Staying below this level should keep the pressure on as the week works toward the close. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed’s Lockhart says he is ready to tighten on inflation Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:45 AM PDT But he says that current monetary policy is appropriate. That current monetary policy is supportive. He further cites that short term inflation increase won’t persist. So he is talking from both sides of his mouth. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GDP a touch higher than expected on Inventories Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:33 AM PDT Personal Consumption: 4% vs 4.1% last Inventories contributed to the revision higher as they rose from $7.1 to $16.2 billion Contributions to US GDP: Inventories actually subtracted from GDP compared to last quarter at -3.42%. However, compared to the last estimate, the inventory decline was less. IN the last cut the Inventores subtracted -3.7%. So the gain of 0.28% was the chief contributor to the revision higher. With inventories still subtracting in the 4th quarter, the 1st quarter is likely to benefit from an inventory replenishment. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Annualized GDP Rises, Core PCE & Personal Consumption Slightly Lower Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:31 AM PDT Annualized: Survey: 3.0% Actual: 3.1% Prior: 2.8% GDP Price Index: Survey: 0.4% Actual: 0.4% Prior: 0.4% Core PCE (QoQ): Survey: 0.5% Actual: 0.4% Prior: 0.5% Personal Consumption: Survey: 4.1% Actual: 4.0% Prior: 4.1% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.25.2011 Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:31 AM PDT
Portugal was downgraded after the prime minister resigned when legislators rejected new austerity measures. S&P lower Portugal’s long term sovereign credit rating-short term ratings remain on negative watch. S&P stated that “the resulting increased political uncertainty could hurt market confidence and heighten Portugal’s refinancing risk” Both the ECB and BOE are feeling pressure to increase interest rates, as signs of inflation creep into their economies. This is a very delicate situation-as raising interest rates may slow economic recovery. The Euro Zone and UK are both still reeling from the global recession, along with the EU battling a sovereign debt crisis-this may be reason enough to hold off on any rate hikes. In Japan-news that the No.3 reactor at the Fukushima Dai-Ichi power plant may be cracked and leaking radiation. The spread of radiation in the food and water supply is of major concerns-even as the Japanese government states that the health threat remained minimal. In other news, NATO is slated to take over control of the no-fly zone over Libya as soon as this weekend. Worldwide equity markets rose, and US Futures are higher at this time. The technology sector lead the way-with Oracle and Accenture beating alalysts’ estimates. Oil:$105.55 Gold:$1436.60
HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed’s Fisher says liquidity is not just abundant but in excess Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:26 AM PDT Fisher is turning out to be the hawk at the Fed. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The NY Opening Forex Call for March 25th Posted: 25 Mar 2011 05:17 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forex Wrap, Today at 12:30 PM. Register to attend. Posted: 25 Mar 2011 04:56 AM PDT
Friday Forex wrap show with Greg & Shawn. In this Friday webinar, Greg and Shawn go through the week and answer your questions on trading/on the forex. To participate, click on the following link CLICK HERE This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Report 6.2 Earthquake in Northeast Japan Posted: 25 Mar 2011 04:52 AM PDT On the newswires | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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