Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Magnitude 7.0 earthquake hits Thailand
- EURUSD breaks but finds momentum down STOPS
- USDCHF tries a move higher but fails. 0.9088 resistance
- GBPUSD upside limited and the pair rotates back lower
- EURUSD tests midpoint of corrective move down
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.24.2011
- Durable Goods weaker. Initial Claim as expected
- Juncker says Portugal needs to continue doing its homework
- The NY Opening Forex Call for March 24th is available for viewing
- US Durable Goods Orders & Jobless Claims Data Due at 8:30AM
- Sterling sells off following poor U.K retail sales
- UK Retail Sales down 1.0% in February
- 5 minutes….
- EUR/USD firmer on good data
- BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale speaks in London
| Magnitude 7.0 earthquake hits Thailand Posted: 24 Mar 2011 07:07 AM PDT Reported on newswires | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD breaks but finds momentum down STOPS Posted: 24 Mar 2011 06:57 AM PDT
In an earlier report, a break of the support at the 1.4127 should lead to lower levels. It did and the price moved lower, but when the price reached the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart, the selling STOPPED and the price reversed back above the trendline and 38.2% retracement level. The 1.4150 level is still the target along with the 100 hour MA at the 1.4164 level (blue line in the chart above).
The Euro continues to be under watch from the fundamental news and events due to Portugal issues and EU summit. This fluid situation causes the increased volatility and suggests that traders will likely “fall in like” with their convictions rather than “falling in love” with them. As a result, watch the technical levels and if it means being more patient at times and also taking profits/losses quicker, you might be better off in the long run. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| USDCHF tries a move higher but fails. 0.9088 resistance Posted: 24 Mar 2011 06:31 AM PDT
The USDCHF wandered higher and moved above the 200 hour MA in the Far East trading session. The move above the 200 hour MA should have solicited additional buying interest and although the price moved higher (to 0.9122), the momentum faded and the price moved back below the 200 hour MA (currently at 0.9088). Now with the 200 hour MA and he 38.2% retracement coming in at the 0.9088 I would expect to see selling pressure against the level. If the price can stay below the level, a move below the 0.9058 level (remembered price/line) and a test of the 100 hour MA a the 0.9046 level would be expected. The CHF has been a flight to safety currency pair and keeps on getting “stuff” to trade on. Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Japan, Portugal are all stories that should keep the pair a favored currency (lower USDCHF). However, is it too crowded? That is are too many people in it already? There is no way to definitively know. However, the technicals will tell the story. With pair below the 200 hour MA and 38.2% retracement the burden of proof is on the buyers. They will need to push the price above teh 0.9088 level in order to prove the seriousness of their conviction. Without a move above those levels, the bears will remain in charge. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GBPUSD upside limited and the pair rotates back lower Posted: 24 Mar 2011 06:18 AM PDT
The GBPUSD tried to correct on the weaker US data but failed to get above the midpoint of the move up from the March 17th low to the high on March 21st at the 1.6189 level. The failure has pushed the pair down lower in consolidative trade. The pair is back below the confirming 200 hour MA at the 1.6181 level (green line in the chart above) and will look toward the 1.6140 level as the next target (61.8% of the move up). A move below that level will look toward the 1.6095 level. However, reaching that level is likely to be a stretch for the pair. Look for support against the 1.6140 level to attrack profit taking buyers with stops on break below. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| EURUSD tests midpoint of corrective move down Posted: 24 Mar 2011 05:56 AM PDT
Now the market has a decision to make - does it break the upside and test the 100 hour MA at the 1.4164 level currently (blue line in the chart above). Support come in at the 1.4127 level which was the 38.2% retracement level and also corresponds to the underside of the channel trendline. A move back in the channel disappoints the intraday bulls and likely leads to some further selling pressure in the pair. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.24.2011 Posted: 24 Mar 2011 05:31 AM PDT
UK Retail Sales were very disappointing-as consumers spent and shopped last month before the government increased sales taxes. Retailers will see pressure in future sales as an increase in inflation along with higher taxes may keep consumers concerned about purchases and spending. Asian equity markets were mixed-while European are higher. US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening in NY this morning. Oil:$106.17 Gold:$1437.20
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Durable Goods weaker. Initial Claim as expected Posted: 24 Mar 2011 05:30 AM PDT Durable Goods -0.9% vs 1.2% expected Durable goods orders are a measure of those goods that last more than 3 years. Transportation equipment fell as did demand for business equipment. The Initial Claims came in at 382K vs 383K expected. The claims data are indicative of an improving labor market. The Unemployment rate is 8.9% down from 9.8% 3 months ago. The Durables is disappointing. Claims ok. Continuing Claims a touch higher at 3721 vs 3700K The EURUSD has a muted reaction to the data. The move higher in the early NY session has stalled for the time being. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Juncker says Portugal needs to continue doing its homework Posted: 24 Mar 2011 05:17 AM PDT
Meanwhile, EU President HermanVan Rompuy is quoted as saying Europe economic problems are not over. The EU is having a summit today and the leader hopes that today is a turning point in the management of the crisis that has gripped the union. The latest of which is Portugal whose parliament rejected a government austerity program that has led to the resignation of their Prime Minister Jose Socrates. The rejection is thought to potentially push Portugal to seek a bailout. In the chart above the yield on the 5 year note has soared to over 8% and with higher borrowing cost, reducing the deficit becomes harder and harder. The rating agencies are likely to keep the pressure on the credit rating and this in turn increases bond yields. The vicious circle leads to the eventual bailout. It is estimated that Portugal will need as much as 70 billion Euros. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The NY Opening Forex Call for March 24th is available for viewing Posted: 24 Mar 2011 05:04 AM PDT | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| US Durable Goods Orders & Jobless Claims Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 24 Mar 2011 04:44 AM PDT
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| Sterling sells off following poor U.K retail sales Posted: 24 Mar 2011 02:49 AM PDT The British pound weakened after a worse than expected retail sales number out of the U.K. was released at 5:30. In the case of the pound versus the USD: the pair was finding resistance at the 1.6229 level, but sold down to 1.61478; and old low from earlier this month following the release. It seems that there may not been enough momentum to push through this level for now, a bounce higher could see the pair back towards the 61.8% line at 1.61888.
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| UK Retail Sales down 1.0% in February Posted: 24 Mar 2011 02:32 AM PDT UK Retail Sales m/m came in at -1.0%, weaker than the -0.6% expected. Gbp/Usd fell to 1.6170 on news. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Posted: 24 Mar 2011 02:25 AM PDT
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| Posted: 24 Mar 2011 02:23 AM PDT The euro appears to be making moderate gains after a string of better than expected data out of Europe after trading continually lower for the past two trading days making a low of 1.4053. Seen here on the 15 minute chart, the pair broke above short term trendline resistance and is heading towards 1.41144; where both the 38.2% line and 100 bar moving average converge. A pullback could see the pair back below the 1.4100 figure.
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| BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale speaks in London Posted: 24 Mar 2011 02:12 AM PDT * UK faces considerable headwinds in household sector * risk of faster UK inflation longer than expected; likely to exceed 4% for rest of year * inflation to justify cut in key rate * Japan, Mideast events likely to dampen global demand | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Good Morning: Portugal’s Prime Minister resigned after his legislators rejected his proposals for austerity measures in the wake of their debt crisis. The failure to pass the austerity measures have put the country in a dire situation. It looks like Portugal will need to follow Greece and Ireland and seek an international bailout. Portugal had already raised taxes and has added deep spending cuts prior to the vote for additional austerity measures. The bailout cost is estimated to be approximately 100 billion euros. 
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