The Japanese yen falls across the board this week as risk appetite continues to rebound from the low post natural disaster in Japan. DOW rose 81 pts overnight and closed strongly near to this week's high. Asian equities also followed with Nikkei up nearly 200pts. EUR/JPY has taken out key near term resistance on ECB rate expectations. AUD/JPY also broke key resistance level as carry trade returns. Judging from the relative reaction to risk appetite and the strength in USD/JPY, the Japanese yen is back to be the most favored funding currency for carry trades. Comments from Fed Plosser and Bullard raised some possibility that Fed could start normalizing policies earlier than expected and support dollar comparing to the yen.
Wednesday, 30 March 2011
Action Insight Daily Report 3-30-11
Daily Report: Yen Broadly Lower With EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY Taken Out Key Resistance
Tuesday, 29 March 2011
TheLFB Sentiment and Momentum Indicator (SMI)
TheLFB Global Market Alert Service
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sentiment & Momentum Indicator
Mar 29, 2011
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Sentiment and Momentum Indicator (SMI) detail shown below forms part of TheLFB
subscription service, which analyzes global market trade, including intra-day trend,
momentum, and price action points using a 1-hour chart analysis. Subscribers receive
intra-day email alerts whenever the SMI system triggers a change in global price
action, sentiment, and momentum, on each asset class.
Equity Indices, gold, silver, oil, dollar index and currency pairs are all covered.
The intra-day SMI service is in addition to our trading plans, which are issued
for each asset class and made available to clients at the close of business each
day for a 24 hour trading.
The trade plans offer a deep analysis of each asset class, which allows investors
and traders to plot a course through the global market trading day on those sectors
of interest to them.
Sincerely,
TheLFB Trade Team
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Intra-day Equity Indices SMI
Alert Updates:
S&P 500:
Long momentum, mixed trend. Long from 1318 targeting 1322. Short from 1308 targeting
1299
German Dax:
Long momentum, Short trend. Long from 6985 targeting 7025. Short from 6930 targeting
6860
Japanese Nikkei:
Long momentum, Short trend. Long from 9560 targeting 9625. Short from 9440 targeting
9345
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Intra-day Commodity SMI
Gold Bullion:
Short momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 1424 targeting 1438. Short from 1415 targeting
1399
Silver Bullion:
Long momentum, Long trend. Long from 37.30 targeting 37.70. Short from 36.75 targeting
35.75
WTI Crude Oil:
Long momentum, Long trend. Long from 105.50 targeting 106.15. Short from 103.90
targeting 102.90
10-year Treasury Note:
Short momentum, long trend. Long from 121.50 targeting 121.70. Short from 121.05
targeting 120.80
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Intra-day Currency SMI
Dollar Index:
Long momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 76.80 targeting 77.25. Short from 76.40 targeting
75.95
Eur/Usd:
Short momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 1.4135 targeting 1.4205. Short from 1.4065
targeting 1.4020
Gbp/Usd:
Short momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 1.6025 targeting 1.6095. Short from 1.5965
targeting 1.5910
Usd/Jpy:
Long momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 82.65 targeting 83.00. Short from 82.05 targeting
81.45
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Forex Market Updates & Commentary
The EURUSD is not the only currency pair to squeeze back higher. The GBPUSD has also moved to the upside and tests the 50% of the days range and the converged 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The level comes in at the 1.5992 (for the 50% ) and the 1.5996 level for the 100 and 200 bar MA.
These levels should solicit some selling pressure with 1.5974 -79 as downside support. Should this level hold, the pair will likely squeeze higher. A move below this area makes the trading for the day more difficult as both bulls and bears would be frustrated.
S & P notes increased risk to Greeces Budgetary Position
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 07:05 AM PDT
Despite the negative from S&P, the EURUSD has risen and is above the 38.2% of the days trading range at the 1.4085. Just above that level is the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.4091. This would be another level for the bears to sell against. A move above would not be welcomed.
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 07:01 AM PDT
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:36 AM PDT
S&P lowers Portugal to BBB- for BBB, A-3 at S&P , Outlook negative.
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:36 AM PDT
The rating was BBB. S& P also removed Portugal from negative credit watch.
The Portuguese bond yields have increased to 8.74% from 8.49% last week and 7.68% at the end of the March 18th week.
The downgrade from S&P was somewhat expected given S&P downgrade of Portuguese banks including the Portuguese division of Banco Santander and Banco Espirito Santo.
US Consumer Confidence Due at 10AM
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:25 AM PDT
USDJPY moves toward key 100 day MA
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:24 AM PDT
The 100 day MA comes in at 82.60 in the USDJPY. This level should find profit taking sellers with stops on a move above the key level.
The price in the USDJPY has been below the level since March 11th, the day of the earthquake and tsunami.
Taking a look at the hourly chart for the pair, the price formed a bull flag for the pair and targets the 82.50 for the move. This too should give profit taking sellers another reason to take some gains in their trading.
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:06 AM PDT
The Case Schiller confirm numbers in the existing home sales data and the new home sales data that was released last week. That is, home prices are continuing to fall. If you recall New Home sales median price fell to $202k from $234K. Exisiting home sales median price fell to $156K from $158K.
Foreclose homes keep on entering in the market and this keeps buyers in charge. This makes it difficult for conventional home sales to take place. Eighteen of twenty cities showed price declines. The largest YoY decline came in Phoenix with a 9.1% fall. Washington showed the largest YoY increase coming in at +3.6%.
Should employment continue to rise, this may open the door for new buyers to come in and snap up low cost housing. However, with estimates of foreclosures rising by 20% in 2011 (RealtyTrac), the glut should continue and keep the price pressure on housing.
S&P CaseShiller Home Prices Fall
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 06:02 AM PDT
S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind: Actual: 140.86 Prior: 142.42 Revised: 142.34
S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA: Survey: -0.44% Actual: -.22% Prior: -0.41% Revised: -..39%
S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY): Survey: -3.20% Actual: -3.06% Prior: -2.38% Revised: -%
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 05:34 AM PDT
The German inflation for YoY came in at 2.2% which was as expected. The Flash estimate for CPI for the EU comes out on the 31st and is expected to show an unchanged reading of 2.4%. ECBs Trichet seems intent on raising rates at the April 7th meeting. Today ECBs Makuch spoke out of both sides of his mouth when he said a rate rise was highly probable but not certain. The market is expecting a 25 basis point rise to 1.25%. This will be the first change in rates since May 2009 when the rate was lowered to 1% from 1.25%
The Forex Morning Call for March 29th
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 05:24 AM PDT
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.29.2011
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 05:24 AM PDT
Good Morning:
Federal Reserve member Bullard stated overnight that the FOMC may not be able or willing to wait out the global uncertainties before the US satrts normalising it’s monetary ploicy.
The uncertainties that he is speaking about are:
1) Political unrest in Middle East and North Africa
2) Japanese crisis (earthquake and nuclear)
3) European sovereign debt problems
4) US deficit
US monetary officials seems to be more hawkish lately, but before any decisions the policy makers better be certain that the US economic recovery is on a positive path, and that consumer sentiment is improving and not deteriorating. With the price of gasoline rising daily (it sure seems like it), and rising global tensions on the political front-I think we may see weak consumer sentiment datalater this morning.
World equity markets traded lower-US Futures are higher at this time.
Oil:$103.14 Gold:$1415.80
| TIME | FOR | EST. | PRIOR | |||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P/CASESHILLER HOME PRICE IND. | JAN. | 142.42′ | |||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P/CS 20 CITY MoM% SA | JAN. | -0.40% | -0.41% | ||
| 9:00A.M. | S&P/CS COMPOSITE -20 YoY | JAN. | -3.20% | -2.38% | ||
| 10:00A.M. | CONSUMER CONFIDENCE | MAR. | 65.O | 7O.4 | ||
HAVE A GOOD DAY & GOOD LUCK
ECB Makuch says rate increase in April NOT certain, but highly probable
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 04:42 AM PDT
- Situation in Portugal is serious but complicated and does pose a risk of contagion
- Rate increase is highly probable but NOT certain
- ECB vigilant on inflation
The comment is a bit ambiguous with “probable” but “not certain” used to describe the rate potential in April. The ECB meets on April 7th and the expectation from surveyed results is for a tightening of 25 basis points.
The EURUSD bounced off support at the 1.4059 and looks toward the channel trendline on the 5 minute chart. That level currently comes in at the 1.4077 level and coming down. A move above this level would next target the 1.4093 level where the 38.2% of the days range is found. Just above that is the 200 bar MA (1.4095 currently) on the 5 minute chart (see green line in the chart below). This is also resistance for the pair. If the price can stay below the 38.2% of a steep move to the downside (or upside), it will often be a clue, the downside may still have some momentum. Support remains at 1.4058, and below that the lows from Monday’s trade at the 1.4020-25 area.
S&P CaseShiller Data Due at 9AM
Posted: 29 Mar 2011 04:23 AM PDT
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 3-29-11
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Mid-Day Report: Dollar Recovers on Bullard's Comment, Yen Broadly Lower
Dollar is firmer today as again lifted by hawkish comments from St. Louis Fed Bullard. Bullard said that normalization of monetary policy will be a key issue for Fed this year but Fed "may not be willing or able to wait until all global uncertainties are resolved to begin normalizing policy." And, while normalization begins, Fed would still leave "unprecedented policy accommodation on the table." This is in contrast to comments from Chicago Fed Evans, who noted that completion of the USD 600b QE2 program in June is "just about the right number" and suggested Fed will "continue to have a high amount of accommodation" after that. Also, the greenback is supported as this week's retreat in crude oil and gold continues.
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What The Great Depression Has Taught Us?
Many people continue to bear the powerful memory of the Great Depression in their minds, so when the current economic downfall was officially declared in the mass media, they became extremely nervous about the way things will turn out in the end. Since there are so many similarities and dissimilarities between the two periods, we think it is to our best to determine which measures people should use to get out of the economic recession without being too affected by it.
Saving money and reducing your costs is the golden rule if you want to get rid of financial instability. The ideal situation would be for people to cease making new credits and to do everything in their power to cover the existing debts. This way, the creditors will be able to regain the money they have lost while offering credits to their clients and the world economy will slowly recover.
The second aspect you may improve in your life is to replace ready-made products with objects that you may create yourself. Since they didn't have the financial means to purchase all the clothing items and furnish pieces they wanted, most people would dedicate themselves to do-it -yourself activities in the 30s that helped them overcome the crisis. In addition to the fact that you will create resistant products with less money, you will achieve a highly rewarding feeling once your projects will be finished.
Wary consumers will have a lot to gain this year as they will reduce the money they spend on food and other products and thus, avoid getting affected by the economic downfall. Most people throw their food away or their old devices once they become old or broken; yet, you can save a lot of money by reusing old fabrics and apparatuses in order to create new and functional ones. These products may not be as good as new but they will surely help you get through these rough days.
All this saving and wary consumerism will enable you to gain your money back; in this case, we recommend you to invest your savings instead of depositing it in the bank. There are numerous ways you can invest your money in a period of economic recession as tangible products like gold or oil are very likely to become more expensive and thus, you will double or triple the invested sum of money.
Saving money and reducing your costs is the golden rule if you want to get rid of financial instability. The ideal situation would be for people to cease making new credits and to do everything in their power to cover the existing debts. This way, the creditors will be able to regain the money they have lost while offering credits to their clients and the world economy will slowly recover.
The second aspect you may improve in your life is to replace ready-made products with objects that you may create yourself. Since they didn't have the financial means to purchase all the clothing items and furnish pieces they wanted, most people would dedicate themselves to do-it -yourself activities in the 30s that helped them overcome the crisis. In addition to the fact that you will create resistant products with less money, you will achieve a highly rewarding feeling once your projects will be finished.
Wary consumers will have a lot to gain this year as they will reduce the money they spend on food and other products and thus, avoid getting affected by the economic downfall. Most people throw their food away or their old devices once they become old or broken; yet, you can save a lot of money by reusing old fabrics and apparatuses in order to create new and functional ones. These products may not be as good as new but they will surely help you get through these rough days.
All this saving and wary consumerism will enable you to gain your money back; in this case, we recommend you to invest your savings instead of depositing it in the bank. There are numerous ways you can invest your money in a period of economic recession as tangible products like gold or oil are very likely to become more expensive and thus, you will double or triple the invested sum of money.
About the Author:
Buy Gold under the form of small bars and coins and you will make a good investment.
Economic Predictions For 2011
There has always been a close relationship between the evolution of global economy and peoples lives. This is why the necessity of previsions appeared. It is not easy to accurately predict the situation of world economy in 2011. Things got even more complicated once major events started to take place. For instance Japan was shaken by a tremendous earthquake followed by a devastating tsunami. These events have repercussions on the economy of Japan as well as on other economies.
The beginning of 2011 was promising. The nations previously hit by recession seemed to slowly recover. The bad news is that the small growth remains in the field of theory while a large amount of people will not be able to notice it in their day by day existence. Many nations still deal with high inflation and unemployment. Although USA keeps its inflation within controllable parameters, this is not the case of unemployment. American political leaders thought that supporting the industries which create jobs would be a solution to this problem, but reality comes to disappoint everybody. Profits were used by corporations to augment share prices and not hire people. By contrast, economies with high rates of growth like India and China seem to be more open to hiring. In respect to unemployment, the predictions for 2011 are not very positive. It seems that its rate will remain high in quite a number of developed states, including the USA.
Another interesting evolution is the one of the oil market. It affects not only the budgets of car drivers but also the price of food. The revolutionary movements in North Africa were followed by a raise of the oil price but Saudi Arabia's forecast of augmented production generated a lowering effect on it. Predictions show that oil price will continue to grow in 2011 but not as much as to affect the economic recovery of the rich countries formerly hit by crisis.
There is no news in the fact that America depends on oil, but it also counts on other tools such as its powerful economy and low inflation to minimize the effects of a price jump. Things are somehow different in Europe. Fuel is highly taxed here which means that rising oil prices will not shake the economies too hard. The risk however comes from the central bankers who fear such a raised price and therefore their pre-emptive actions might prove too drastic, thus endangering European economies who are still trying to overcome the crisis. The Middle East has its own problems. Fuel and food subsidies need to be reduced here and support needs to be given to poor classes. Unfortunately, for the moment, no Arab ruler is ready to take such actions.
The price of gold is also very important in the economy. Its evolution cannot be accurately predicted, but analysts come up with their own attempts based on historical data. Some of them forecast a highest gold price of 5,000 dollars per ounce. Others consider mass psychology and affirm that peoples distrust in this peak of 5,000 dollars per ounce will lead to a resistance against its materialization. A third category of analysts predict a downward movement of gold price in 2011 due to a recovery of the market. Taking into account all these theories regarding the evolution of gold market, there is only one conclusion to be reached: if you want to buy gold, now is the perfect time to do it.
The beginning of 2011 was promising. The nations previously hit by recession seemed to slowly recover. The bad news is that the small growth remains in the field of theory while a large amount of people will not be able to notice it in their day by day existence. Many nations still deal with high inflation and unemployment. Although USA keeps its inflation within controllable parameters, this is not the case of unemployment. American political leaders thought that supporting the industries which create jobs would be a solution to this problem, but reality comes to disappoint everybody. Profits were used by corporations to augment share prices and not hire people. By contrast, economies with high rates of growth like India and China seem to be more open to hiring. In respect to unemployment, the predictions for 2011 are not very positive. It seems that its rate will remain high in quite a number of developed states, including the USA.
Another interesting evolution is the one of the oil market. It affects not only the budgets of car drivers but also the price of food. The revolutionary movements in North Africa were followed by a raise of the oil price but Saudi Arabia's forecast of augmented production generated a lowering effect on it. Predictions show that oil price will continue to grow in 2011 but not as much as to affect the economic recovery of the rich countries formerly hit by crisis.
There is no news in the fact that America depends on oil, but it also counts on other tools such as its powerful economy and low inflation to minimize the effects of a price jump. Things are somehow different in Europe. Fuel is highly taxed here which means that rising oil prices will not shake the economies too hard. The risk however comes from the central bankers who fear such a raised price and therefore their pre-emptive actions might prove too drastic, thus endangering European economies who are still trying to overcome the crisis. The Middle East has its own problems. Fuel and food subsidies need to be reduced here and support needs to be given to poor classes. Unfortunately, for the moment, no Arab ruler is ready to take such actions.
The price of gold is also very important in the economy. Its evolution cannot be accurately predicted, but analysts come up with their own attempts based on historical data. Some of them forecast a highest gold price of 5,000 dollars per ounce. Others consider mass psychology and affirm that peoples distrust in this peak of 5,000 dollars per ounce will lead to a resistance against its materialization. A third category of analysts predict a downward movement of gold price in 2011 due to a recovery of the market. Taking into account all these theories regarding the evolution of gold market, there is only one conclusion to be reached: if you want to buy gold, now is the perfect time to do it.
About the Author:
Choosing the most traditional and common way to Buy Gold will lead you to investing in small bars or coins
Antique Toys - 3 Things New Collectors Should Know
Collecting antique toys is a unique hobby. Many people enjoy it not just for the financial gains of selling on the toys, but also due to the way in which every single item tells its own story. If you're looking to get started as a collector, here are three things that you must know.
1) Choose A Type Of Toy To Collect
Although you could simply start collecting any antique toys that you come across, it helps to consider the exact type of toys you'd like to collect before you get started. For example, you may choose to specialize in antique dolls, or even diecast collectibles. This doesn't mean you can't branch out at a later date. But, for new collectors, it helps to keep things simple so you can learn as much as possible about the specific kinds of antique you plan on collecting. If you're stuck for ideas, try starting with something you already love or at least have some interest in.
2) Remember The Investment You Are Making
No matter whether you're going to buy diecast collectibles to resell in the future, or just want to collect vintage dolls, antique toys should always be seen as an investment. Choosing right - by inspecting all the details to make sure you're getting a good deal - could mean you'll make a lot of money when you resell them in future. Check when the toy was first created, how well it's been made, and that any removable parts are original.
3) Knowing Where To Look
As a new collector of antique toys, you'll slowly learn about the best places to find your collectible vintage dolls and other toys. The internet has now made the task of finding those collectibles a lot easier, though you may still find deals in your local area and classified ads. There are a number of online stores and auction websites that offer excellent opportunities for any collector.
Don't be afraid to ask a number of questions when searching online - in fact it's recommended, as you'll want to be absolutely sure of what you're getting. They should already provide you with photographs, detailed descriptions of the toys, when they were made and so on.
1) Choose A Type Of Toy To Collect
Although you could simply start collecting any antique toys that you come across, it helps to consider the exact type of toys you'd like to collect before you get started. For example, you may choose to specialize in antique dolls, or even diecast collectibles. This doesn't mean you can't branch out at a later date. But, for new collectors, it helps to keep things simple so you can learn as much as possible about the specific kinds of antique you plan on collecting. If you're stuck for ideas, try starting with something you already love or at least have some interest in.
2) Remember The Investment You Are Making
No matter whether you're going to buy diecast collectibles to resell in the future, or just want to collect vintage dolls, antique toys should always be seen as an investment. Choosing right - by inspecting all the details to make sure you're getting a good deal - could mean you'll make a lot of money when you resell them in future. Check when the toy was first created, how well it's been made, and that any removable parts are original.
3) Knowing Where To Look
As a new collector of antique toys, you'll slowly learn about the best places to find your collectible vintage dolls and other toys. The internet has now made the task of finding those collectibles a lot easier, though you may still find deals in your local area and classified ads. There are a number of online stores and auction websites that offer excellent opportunities for any collector.
Don't be afraid to ask a number of questions when searching online - in fact it's recommended, as you'll want to be absolutely sure of what you're getting. They should already provide you with photographs, detailed descriptions of the toys, when they were made and so on.
About the Author:
Whether you're looking for antique dolls, or any other type of antique toy, beginning the search at Antique Toys will give you a huge range of antiques at very affordable prices!
Usd/Treasury Links In Unchartered Waters
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TheLFB Daily Client Note
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Client Note: U.S. Session Preview
March 29, 2011
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Dear Trader,
Welcome to TheLFB's daily client note. Follow along with the trade team as they
review global markets, headlines, trade divergence, momentum, and currency impact
over the 24 hour trading session. Please use the links opposite to access recent
articles and videos, and to register for trade desk updates.
Sincerely,
TheLFB Trade Team
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Trade Desk Note
The Dollar/Treasury Link
The Federal Reserve historically controls overnight lending rates by increasing
or decreasing the flow of Treasury Notes. Historically, when rates need to go lower,
the Fed buys back from the market a swath of existing Treasury notes, therefore
decreasing market liquidity and increasing the existing note values.
By increasing the value of the note, the reaction is for the yield (interest rate)
to be automatically decreased. Lower interest rates come from less notes in circulation.
Historically, when rates need to go up, the Fed sells more Treasury notes, therefore
reducing existing note values and increasing the yield (interest rate). That move
makes more money available to be lent out into the economy; it increases the yield
on the existing notes in circulation, and automatically increases overall market
interest rates.
In a final gesture, the Fed should look to be banking the cash received from the
sale of those notes into their Reserves, so it can then be used in the next cycle
of rate changes. And that is the longer-term query; Reserve amounts are not in-line
with forward debt obligations, and more notes are being printed than can ever be
repaid from current GDP forecasts.
That may be the historical way that the Fed controls interest rates, but the fly
in the Administration (read Treasury Dept. and Federal Reserve) ointment is the
fact that there has never been this amount of notes coming to market, and being
made available. The constant flow of new notes is devaluing the existing and automatically
lifting Treasury yields (interest rates).
At a time when the Fed is absorbing new notes being printed by the Treasury, so
that the stimulus packages can be put into action and cash created to invest as
the Administration wishes, the automatic response is for 10-year yields to rise.
The 10-year Treasury note has the greatest impact on the U.S. economy due to its
influence on long term interest rates.
While the Federal Reserve controls the overnight rate, interest rates paid on long
term financing for capital goods, as well as the housing market, are established
by asserting a premium over the 10-year Treasury note value. In other words, whatever
the 10-year note is worth determines the rates for mortgages, investments and inter-bank
loans that are set from the 10-year yield rates.
Some may feel that the Fed is withholding vital information regarding the danger
of the U.S. economy not easily coming out of the recessionary phase. There has
been no public announcement of any exit strategy to try to unwind the ever-increasing
yield (read mortgage, credit card, auto, commercial real estate, borrowing costs)
which has created wider spreads in the value of insuring against default on the
notes (credit default swaps). This has also impacted the cost of banks doing business
with each other and their willingness to leave risk on their balance sheet for any
sustained period of time.
The fact that the Fed has no choice but to buy back any amount that the market will
not bid freely on, and their commitment to QE2 POMO buy-backs is creating the same
higher rates that the Administration may need to reduce in order for the economy
to more easily grow, and for the Administration to be able to afford the cost of
debt funding. The Fed did its job in creating global liquidity, the Treasury is
doing its job of creating government debt and generating cash, and the Primary Dealers
have done its job of buying equities and commodities that were back-stopped by the
Fed and regional central banks.
Now that quantitative easing may be phased out sooner than originally thought, and
taking out the cost of insurance that the U.S. government stays solvent, it may
be more easily seen why the Usd may start to get bought.
If there are no cash Reserves getting built from the sale and part buy-back of new
notes, and no more QE programs, what will be used to stimulate the next business
cycle drop? And, more importantly, once the required amount of notes have flooded
the market, and yields have exploded, how is the Fed going to repatriate interest
rates? In a strange twist of fate, it may be that higher interest rates instigate
a stronger Usd. The economic cost will remain an unknown, as the Federal Reserve
floated their QE boat into unchartered waters.
Another relationship of note is between the Treasury bond's price, and the interest
rate or premium it offers at any time. It is an inverted relationship; when bond
prices increase, the yield (interest rate) moves lower, and vice-versa. This all
comes from the fact that at maturity repayment of the principle is paid at par value,
and not at bond's market price. Par value = Current Interest Rate/Price.
Example:
A $1000 10-year Treasury note, with a 4% Interest Rate = $1000 x 4% = $40 guaranteed
a year, for 10 years.
If the market price of the note goes down, because of increased amounts of notes
hitting the markets, from $1000 to $500 for example, then the interest rate math
changes.
The same $1000 bond with a 4% interest rate is still guaranteed to pay 4% a year,
but now that it has an open market value of $500, and it is still returning $40,
the interest rate, or Par, is now 8% for as long as the note value holds $500.
It should be pretty clear that the best way to trade bonds is usually during recessionary
times, when bond prices increase due to repeated rate cuts, and in times of equity
selling.
The variable here is the unknown QE2 exit strategy, and how the Fed is going to
stimulate the economy while still containing interest rates. That scenario is creating
fear of loss, sideways forex trade, and volatility that has no release valve.
Updates to this article will be sent via TheLFB daily client notes.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Disclaimer And Disclosure
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Each investor should assess his or her financial situation and risk tolerance before
proceeding.
Information, analysis and methodologies provided on The London Forex Broadsheet(TM)
are for informational purposes only and should not be used as a replacement for
research by an individual investor or licensed investment professional. Neither
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omissions or for any actions taken in response to information contained on www.TheLFB-Forex.com
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Options Income Spreads
Since the Iron Condor is a negative Vega strategy, this should be the right time to use this income option spread. But what is negative Vega anyway? If you do not know, then you might want to watch some free videos on the Option Greeks that can be found on the San Jose Options' website. Anyway, now that the volatility has been on a decline and the markets have become a calmer place to be, this makes it much better to manage this option spread.
Most of us Condor traders have been making money over the last few months with little effort or adjustments at all. It is so great, at times, with this kind of income spread. There are times that we have very few adjustments to make. If the underlying simply trends stays within a tight price range, then the Condor works well and cash flows the market almost each day.
It is a great thing making money this way. It is very low stress, and at times you will have a steady income. This is one time that the stock market will give us the chance to really enjoy our option strategies and without the stress it is a great way to make a living.
I have had a chance to learn a better, different, more cautious way to trade Iron Condors. While most option teachers have a more aggressive approach to this trading strategy, I have learned a safer method by studying with San Jose Options. I can sleep in rest assured that my options portfolio is not being exposed to high risk. While other option traders have to get up at the beginning of the stock market each day in case they have to make an adjustment.
I have been easily making 10% on this new way of trading for the last few months. Believe me; I haven't had to make many adjustments at all. I can put the trade on and let the trade and my money work for me. The way I used to trade, I was making several adjustments, but with my new trading technique, the market never hits my adjustment points, not one single time. I have to say, I am really enjoying trading with the stock market now.
Most of us Condor traders have been making money over the last few months with little effort or adjustments at all. It is so great, at times, with this kind of income spread. There are times that we have very few adjustments to make. If the underlying simply trends stays within a tight price range, then the Condor works well and cash flows the market almost each day.
It is a great thing making money this way. It is very low stress, and at times you will have a steady income. This is one time that the stock market will give us the chance to really enjoy our option strategies and without the stress it is a great way to make a living.
I have had a chance to learn a better, different, more cautious way to trade Iron Condors. While most option teachers have a more aggressive approach to this trading strategy, I have learned a safer method by studying with San Jose Options. I can sleep in rest assured that my options portfolio is not being exposed to high risk. While other option traders have to get up at the beginning of the stock market each day in case they have to make an adjustment.
I have been easily making 10% on this new way of trading for the last few months. Believe me; I haven't had to make many adjustments at all. I can put the trade on and let the trade and my money work for me. The way I used to trade, I was making several adjustments, but with my new trading technique, the market never hits my adjustment points, not one single time. I have to say, I am really enjoying trading with the stock market now.
About the Author:
Looking to find the best deal on a Stock Market Course, then visit www.sjoptions.com to find the best advice on Trading Options.
Swing Change Towards The Undesired Dollar
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TheLFB Daily Client Note
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Client Note: U.S. Session Preview
March 29, 2011
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Dear Trader,
Welcome to TheLFB's daily client note. Follow along with the trade team as they
review global markets, headlines, trade divergence, momentum, and currency impact
over the 24 hour trading session. Please use the links opposite to access recent
articles and videos, and to register for trade desk updates.
Sincerely,
TheLFB Trade Team
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Trade Desk Note
Swing Change Towards The Undesired Dollar
Global risk and precious metal trade revealed a slow start to the final week of
March, with main global equity indices following the bullion trade lead, which although
not breaking hard to the downside, have seen more interest in testing support than
breaking resistance.
The dollar index, as the global reserve currency, is still trying to get re-aligned
with its historical inverse correlation to bullion and equity direction, which would
lead to an upside test of 77.50 on the dollar index if equity markets drop S&P futures
trade below 1295.
Over the course of the last six months, since the announcement and implementation
of quantitative easing programs by the Federal Reserve, the Asian trading session
has been very disjointed and offered very little in the way of consistent price
action follow through.
The European session has tended to be benign, with the US session containing most
forex price action, in response to daily POMO Treasury buy-back auctions.
Over the same time, the historically strong inverse Usd/Equity pattern has also
been tested, with the last six months revealing global markets that are more than
capable of traveling in any direction, at any time, at the drop of a hat. The lack
of overall market participation, dramatically low equity volume, high interbank
lending rates, and an unwillingness to leave risk on a balance sheet for any sustained
period of time, have put in place market mechanics that are very reactive to regional
open and closes.
There now looks to also be a move building that is shifting momentum back to the
European trading session.
Intraday traders looking for momentum plays will now start to rely on the 2 AM German
DAX futures market open, the 7 AM London price fixings on gold, the 11 AM European
close, and the 2:30 PM NYMEX commodity market close (East Coast Times). Outside
of these time-frames sustainable price movement is likely to be seen only in reaction
to breaking headlines.
With news now filtering through of a premature end potentially for the Federal Reserve's
QE2 program, traders will likely see a resumption of the Usd/Equity inverse correlation,
that sees equity selling accompanied by dollar buying, and vice versa.
A weekly close on gold bullion below 1400 could instigate a technical move lower
to test support at 1350, which would also reveal the strength of recent buy-the-dip
patterns of trade. Silver bullion futures contracts have revealed a potential near-term
short trade that could drop silver from 36.50 to test 36.00, and then potentially
35.20. West Texas Intermediate oil trade has already shown near-term weakness with
a move down to test the 20-day simple moving average but 102.50, which is in-line
with an overall pullback in global commodity trade.
Major currency pairs are struggling to break and hold four-hour chart price ranges
that have been in place for virtually all of March. There has been overall US dollar
weakness in that period, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) revealing
record short-dollar positions currently open. With jawboning from Fed officials
now seeming to indicate that further quantitative easing programs are not guaranteed
in any way there could likely be a liquidation of those massive short dollar positions,
especially if S&P 500 trade drops below 1295.
This could be a perfect storm for near-term US dollar buying, which would not be
out of a desire to be long the US economic outlook, but would rather be instigated
as a hedge against a move out of risk and into the relative safety of bond and interest
rate trade.
In general, there seems to be a compelling reason for equities and precious metals
to pull back and test support; however traders will be very much aware that the
pattern of trade over the last six months has been to buy any tests of support.
It will be interesting to see whether increasing volume on the downside will be
able to generate enough momentum to change near-term trends to short on equities
and bullion trade, and move the dollar index into a near-term long trend. Signals
and alerts will be sent to clients as momentum reads are confirmed, and TheLFB's
daily client notes will reveal the sentiment and momentum changes as they happen.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Disclaimer And Disclosure
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Information, analysis and methodologies provided on The London Forex Broadsheet(TM)
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About the Author:
Want to find out more about online penny stock broker, then visit Author Name"s site and get related info about most active penny stocks for your needs.
Action Insight Daily Report 3-29-11
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Daily Report: Euro Recovered on Hawkish Trichet, Resuming Up Trend?
Euro recovers mildly over night as supported by hawkish messages from ECB President Trichet, who emphasized that inflation is now "durably above the common definition of price stability in the eurozone." The comments reinforced expectation of April hike from ECB, which Trichet signaled by using the magical word "vigilance" in last post meeting press conference. The comments also triggered some speculation that April's hike wouldn't be a one-off event as Trichet is possibly starting to pave way for future hikes. Technically, it's possibly that EUR/USD's retreat was finished at 1.4020 yesterday after holding ground above 1.4 psychological level. A break of yesterday's high of 1.4119 will likely send EUR/USD to retest 1.4247 high.
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Monday, 28 March 2011
TheLFB Sentiment and Momentum Indicator (SMI)
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TheLFB Global Market Alert Service
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Sentiment & Momentum Indicator
Mar 28, 2011
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Dear Trader,
The Sentiment and Momentum Indicator (SMI) detail shown below forms part of TheLFB
subscription service, which analyzes global market trade, including intra-day trend,
momentum, and price action points using a 1-hour chart analysis. Subscribers receive
intra-day email alerts whenever the SMI system triggers a change in global price
action, sentiment, and momentum, on each asset class.
Equity Indices, gold, silver, oil, dollar index and currency pairs are all covered.
The intra-day SMI service is in addition to our trading plans, which are issued
for each asset class and made available to clients at the close of business each
day for a 24 hour trading.
The trade plans offer a deep analysis of each asset class, which allows investors
and traders to plot a course through the global market trading day on those sectors
of interest to them.
Sincerely,
TheLFB Trade Team
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Intra-day Equity Indices SMI
Alert Updates:
S&P 500:
Long momentum, mixed trend. Long from 1315 targeting 1322. Short from 1305 targeting
1298
German Dax:
Long momentum, Short trend. Long from 6985 targeting 7025. Short from 6930 targeting
6860
Japanese Nikkei:
Short momentum, Short trend. Long from 9470 targeting 9525. Short from 9380 targeting
9300
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Intra-day Commodity SMI
Gold Bullion:
Short momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 1424 targeting 1438. Short from 1415 targeting
1399
Silver Bullion:
Long momentum, Long trend. Long from 37.30 targeting 37.70. Short from 36.75 targeting
35.75
WTI Crude Oil:
Short momentum, Long trend. Long from 104.95 targeting 105.75. Short from 103.50
targeting 102.65
10-year Treasury Note:
Short momentum, long trend. Long from 121.50 targeting 121.70. Short from 121.05
targeting 120.80
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Intra-day Currency SMI
Dollar Index:
Long momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 76.50 targeting 76.80. Short from 76.25 targeting
75.90
Eur/Usd:
Short momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 1.4135 targeting 1.4205. Short from 1.4065
targeting 1.4020
Gbp/Usd:
Short momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 1.6025 targeting 1.6095. Short from 1.5965
targeting 1.5910
Usd/Jpy:
Long momentum, Mixed trend. Long from 81.95 targeting 82.50. Short from 81.35 targeting
80.80
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Disclaimer And Disclosure
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
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Forex Market Updates & Commentary
Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- US Pending Home Sales Data Surges
- Bobys Corner-Open Market-March.28.2011
- Personal Spending Rises, PCE Data Same as Survey
- Personal Income, Spending & PCE Data Due at 8:30AM
- Sterling falls as BOE’s Sentance says rates need to be raised “sooner rather than later”.
- IFM says SNB should start raising rates over coming months
- S&P downgrades Portuguese banks with long term ratings still on watch
- Chinese central bank issues 1Q monetary policy report
- AUD appreciates to new all-time high of 1.03072 against the USD.
- Sterling lower in recent trade
- 3-28 Economic Calender
| US Pending Home Sales Data Surges Posted: 28 Mar 2011 07:01 AM PDT
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| Bobys Corner-Open Market-March.28.2011 Posted: 28 Mar 2011 05:45 AM PDT
We start the week with the USD a bit stronger-ahead of data on US Consumer Spending. Comments by Fed official Bullard stated that the Fed “may consider scaling back on monetary stimulus”. Consumer spending constitutes about 70 percent of the US economy-analysts are expecting an increase of .5 to .6 percent. (actual came in at .7%). Asian equity markets traded lower, and European equity markets are higher-and US Futures are also higher. Oil:$104.01 Gold:$1413.20
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Personal Spending Rises, PCE Data Same as Survey Posted: 28 Mar 2011 05:33 AM PDT Personal Income: Survey: 0.4% Actual: 0.3% Prior: 1.0% Revised: 1.2% Feb vs. Jan Personal Spending: Survey: 0.5% Actual: 0.7% Prior: 0.2% PCE Core(MoM): Survey: 0.2% Actual: 0.2% Prior: 0.1% PCE Core(YoY): Survey: 0.9% Actual: 0.9% Prior: 0.8% PCE Deflator: Survey: 1.6% Actual: 1.6% Prior: 1.2% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Personal Income, Spending & PCE Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 28 Mar 2011 04:46 AM PDT
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sterling falls as BOE’s Sentance says rates need to be raised “sooner rather than later”. Posted: 28 Mar 2011 02:33 AM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IFM says SNB should start raising rates over coming months Posted: 28 Mar 2011 02:30 AM PDT
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| S&P downgrades Portuguese banks with long term ratings still on watch Posted: 28 Mar 2011 02:03 AM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chinese central bank issues 1Q monetary policy report Posted: 28 Mar 2011 01:11 AM PDT
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| AUD appreciates to new all-time high of 1.03072 against the USD. Posted: 28 Mar 2011 12:46 AM PDT | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sterling lower in recent trade Posted: 28 Mar 2011 12:26 AM PDT Sterling is trading lower as U.K. 10 years open little changed at 3.62% and Euro equity markets open lower. Seen below the GBP/USD had been knocking around between 1.5999 and 1.6024 during the new trading day until it made a stern move through the 1.5999 level. Currently the pair is trading around the 1.5976 level; old lows from mid-February.
If selling continues, the next level downward we may want to use as a target is the 100 hour moving average which currently comes in at 1.59048.
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| Posted: 27 Mar 2011 08:39 PM PDT
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Good Morning:
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