Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The Week Ahead from FXDD (PDF Report)
• EURUSD moves closer to key resistance at 1.4280
• Portugal’s Rating Cut to BBB-
• EURUSD moves to other extreme
• Feds Hoenig says rates should rise in late summer
• Fed’s Dudley on the Wires
• EURUSD squeezes higher to 100 and 200 hour MA area

The Week Ahead from FXDD (PDF Report) Posted: 01 Apr 2011 01:10 PM PDT To access PDF Report CLICK HERE

EURUSD moves closer to key resistance at 1.4280 Posted: 01 Apr 2011 11:38 AM PDT The EURUSD has made new highs for the week and the shorts and new buying push the market higher. The key resistat at the 1.4280 level is getting closer. The level corresponds with the high from November 2010 (at 1.4281), the upper trendline and the downward trendline from the July 2008 high (connecting to the November 2009 high).   The three lines come in near the area. I would expect good profit taking selling as the price moves closer and closer. Next week the ECB will tighten credit conditions.  The expectations is a 25 basis point increase but the possibility exists for 50 basis points if the central bank wants to make a statement.  The decision wll come on Thursday (along with the BOE interest rate decision) at 7:45 AM. Jean Claude Trichet will give his customary press briefing at 8:30 AM ET.

Portugal’s Rating Cut to BBB- Posted: 01 Apr 2011 09:48 AM PDT Portugal’s Rating Cut to BBB- by Fitch, may be cut to junk.

EURUSD moves to other extreme Posted: 01 Apr 2011 09:10 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved to the other extreme outlined in the Opening Forex Call. The area of resistance was at the 1.4202, 1.4211 and 1.4220 levels. Each represented horizontal resistance or Remembered Lines. This area should find sellers in the rollercoaster day.

Feds Hoenig says rates should rise in late summer Posted: 01 Apr 2011 09:01 AM PDT Says any bank in top 4 or 5 are too big to fail Monetary policy highly stimulative Need to move rates up gradually QE2 was unneccesary by the Fed Hoenig is a hawk and his comments are reflective.

Fed’s Dudley on the Wires Posted: 01 Apr 2011 08:06 AM PDT Says: Recovery ‘looks to be better’ than six months ago Recovery ‘not as good’ as a month ago 200,000 jobs per month ‘less than i would like’ Payroll numbers were ‘missing ingredient’ in recovery ‘Dont want to overstate how far we’ve come’ Commodity prices virtually nothing do with monetary policy Inflation expectations stable Fed has ability to exit when time comes Too soon to say on possible exit QE2 doesn’t impair exit ability Recovery ‘tenous’ with high unemployment No reason to pull back from monetary stimulus ‘Would be surprised if Fed doesn’t complete full QE2 Market expects full $600 billion program He would be surprised if full QE2 not finished FOMC will do timely, effective exit

EURUSD squeezes higher to 100 and 200 hour MA area Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:35 AM PDT Anything can happen now with a break above the 200 hour MA.  1.4116 is now support as the trend move down today loses some of its moxie….

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