Dollar remains steadily in range in early US session after data shows stronger than expected inflation reading in March. CPI rose to 2.7% yoy versus expectation of 2.6% yoy, highest reading since December 2009 and a sharp jump from February's 2.1% yoy. Empire stat manufacturing index beat expectation and rose to 21.7 in March. TIC capital flow dropped to 26.9B in February. Industrial production rose 0.8% in March, better than consensus of 0.6%.
Friday, 15 April 2011
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-15-11
Mid-Day Report: Dollar Steady after Data, Euro Lower on Ireland Downgrade
Action Insight Daily Report 4-15-11
Daily Report: Markets Sentiments Hit Mildly by Strong China CPI
Markets sentiments is hit mildly earlier today after strong Chinese inflation data triggered concern of further tightening from China. Asian equities are generally lower but losses are limited so far. Yen strengthens mildly together with falling stocks and recent decline in yen crosses might continue as the day goes. Dollar also recovers mildly but strength is muted. The greenback would continue to face pressure from surging commodity prices with gold making another record high at 1480 and silver extends up trend through 42 level. Euro and swissy are both resilient and would likely remain strong against the greenback even though Moody's just downgraded Ireland's rating by two notches to Baa3 from Baa1 and issued a negative outlook.
Markets sentiments is hit mildly earlier today after strong Chinese inflation data triggered concern of further tightening from China. Asian equities are generally lower but losses are limited so far. Yen strengthens mildly together with falling stocks and recent decline in yen crosses might continue as the day goes. Dollar also recovers mildly but strength is muted. The greenback would continue to face pressure from surging commodity prices with gold making another record high at 1480 and silver extends up trend through 42 level. Euro and swissy are both resilient and would likely remain strong against the greenback even though Moody's just downgraded Ireland's rating by two notches to Baa3 from Baa1 and issued a negative outlook.
Thursday, 14 April 2011
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-14-11
Mid-Day Report: USD/JPY Dips after Jobless Claims, Euro Lower on Greece Concern
Dollar dips versus the Japanese yen in early US session after data showed initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 412k in the week ended April 9. That's the highest number in two months and much worse than market expectation of 380k. COntinuing claims, though, dropped by 58k to 3.68m in the week ended April 2, the lowest number since September 2008. Headline PPI missed expectation and rose 0.7% mom, 5.8% yoy in March only while core PPI rose 0.3% mom, 1.9% yoy. USD/JPY extends recent pull back from 85.51 an breaches 83 level after the release while the Japanese yen also strengthen mildly. USD/CHF made new record low earlier today and remains soft for deeper decline.
Action Insight Daily Report 4-14-11
Daily Report: Dollar Back Under Pressure, USD/CHF at Record Low
Dollar index's recovery was rather brief and dips to 74.66 in Asian session today to extend recent decline. Recovery in commodities, in particular in precious metals, is a main driving force in the current decline in the greenback. Silver takes the lead and recovers to above 41 level and is set to test recent high again. Meanwhile gold follows and is staying firm above 1460. USD/CHF makes new record low at 0.8895 on broad based strength in swissy. The greenback manages to stay above recent low of 1.4519 but is vulnerable to deeper fall should crude oil could extend yesterday's recovery.
Wednesday, 6 April 2011
Action Insight Daily Report 4-6-11
Daily Report: Yen and Dollar Extend Down Trend
Yen and dollar resume weakness today and are both broadly lower against European majors. Yen extended the post intervention decline as partly driven by revival of carry trades. In addition, BoJ is said to be considering a credit program to spur lending for reviving the economy after March's natural disaster. The bank may make an announcement as early as tomorrow after a two day meeting. Dollar, on the other hand is pressured as Fed minutes showed diverging opinion among members on whether to unwind the stimulus measures this year. Gold jumped to record high of 1458.6 overnight while crude oil is firm above 108, both keeping the pressure on the greenback.
Tuesday, 5 April 2011
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-5-11
Mid-Day Report: Euro Lower on Portugal Downgrade, Sterling Jumps in Services PMI
Moody's downgraded Portuguese debt rating for a second time in less than a month day, by one notch from A3 to Baa1. The rating agency also placed the country on review for another downgrade. Yield on portugal's 10 year bond jumps after the news to above 8.75%. CDS also rose above 590 basis points and is above Ireland's level for the first time since August 2010. Portugal's situation has deteriorated after the government failed to seek approval of the budget. Prime Minister Jose Socrates resigned and election for the new government will take place on June 5. Moody's expects the elected government will tap the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) with 'urgency'.
Action Insight Daily Report 4-5-11
Australia dollar is mildly lower in Asia today after data showed the country unexpectedly recorded the first trade deficit in almost a year. Also, RBA left rates unchanged and published a rather balanced statement. Trade balance swung from revised AUD 1.43b surplus in February to AUD 0.21b in January and ended a 10 month run of surplus, which was the longest streak since 1972-73. Exports posted a second straight month of contraction as intense flooding across Queensland hampered coal exports. Meanwhile, the Japan's disaster would probably hamper Australian exports in the coming months but would at least be partially offset by surge in commodity prices.
Monday, 4 April 2011
Action Insight Mid-Day Report 4-4-11
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Mid-Day Report: Markets Tread Water, Aussie Pares Gain ahead of RBA
Market actions are rather subdued today as traders are awaiting key event risks later this week. Euro remains firmly supported by expectation of rate hike from ECB on Thursday but there isn't any fresh stimulus for further rally. EUR/USD is still struggling around 1.425 level despite edging higher to 1.4267 earlier today. Data from Eurozone saw sentix investor confidence dropped sharply from 17.1 to 14.2 in April. Eurozone PPI rose 0.8% mom, 6.6% yoy in February. Other data released today saw UK PMI construction dropped just slightly to 56.4 in March. Japan monetary base rose 16.9% yoy in March.
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Usd Dominated By Business Cycles
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TheLFB Daily Client Note
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Client Note: U.S. Session Preview
April 04, 2011
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Dear Trader,
Welcome to TheLFB's daily client note. Follow along with the trade team as they
review global markets, headlines, trade divergence, momentum, and currency impact
over the 24 hour trading session. Please use the links opposite to access recent
articles and videos, and to register for trade desk updates.
Sincerely,
TheLFB Trade Team
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Trade Desk Note
Usd Dominated By Business Cycles
Peak, contraction, trough, expansion, growth, are the five cycles of the global
economic business cycle. Each phase of the cycle reflects the currency valuation
for each economic region. The cycles run over an average ten to fifteen year period.
The next move in the U.S. phase will likely be from the trough into expansion, which
will be lead by economics, sentiment, or a mixture of both. A double-dip move back
into the contraction phase is historically unlikely, but could happen if the U.S.
housing and employment outlook worsen as the summer approaches. The reasons why
or how it all happens can be debated forever.
The phases of contraction and trough have already happened globally, and there
is now an upward target of sustainable expansion that may lead to growth over the
coming quarters. Growth will come, it always does, but the relative strength of
the U.S. cycle compared to other regions may not be as robust.
The U.S. is following the business cycle phases the same way other regions are,
but the difference is that the U.S. is going from boom to bust a lot quicker than
other regions. The cycles are getting shallower, and are coming in shorter five
to eight year cycles, creating volatility in dollar valuations.
The downside of relatively quick moves in expansion and contraction is that the
Usd does not have time to re-establish new values as well as other currencies, and
because of global commodities being priced in dollars, the quicker cycles can create
inflation pressures that are historically stronger than previously noted. The killer
effects of consumer inflation, coupled with increasing debt levels are weighing
heavily on the U.S. business cycle's lifespan.
As the U.S. moves along its own cycle, so the global economies follow theirs, but
right now the moves are out of sync; the global market's peak phase came at the
same time as the U.S. contraction phase started, and that is now leading to a period
where the U.S. tries to expand as some overseas regions are already looking hard
at the impact of solid growth. The real question is how the market prices Usd based
debt; any GDP growth will be negated by forward debt valuations, especially if overseas
regions are expanding ahead of the U.S.
The U.K. is dealing with every bit as strong a recession as the U.S., and is seeing
consumer confidence levels stripped to the bone. The Euro-zone is expanding from
an economic slow-down from the effects of the credit crisis and reductions in bank
lending. Australia is down-grading overseas growth and absorbing interest rate increases
and implementation in an effort to control an economy that is leading the global
business cycle. Japan has struggled in their business cycle phases, and has absorbed
failed quantitative easing programs, stagflationary pressures, and now the impact
of the tragic earthquake in March.
All-in-all we are seeing a base in global economics as the trough phase completes,
and as a consequence of that the value of the Usd may automatically decrease having
already absorbed a lot of contraction-related bad news. As the U.S. looks to get
out of the business cycle trough, and can overcome housing and employment woes,
the other major forex economic regions may become empowered by the U.S. consumer.
In the near-term that may be enough to allow other economic regions to overtake
the U.S. because of having far less debt to finance.
Those moves will decrease dollar valuations, increase oil prices, increase global
inflationary fears, and allow a period of trade to happen where, for the first time
in twelve to eighteen months, the dollar finds sellers in strong enough numbers
to be able to break 75.00 on the dollar index.
This may turn out to be the start of a sideways distribution phase, after a possible
near-term dollar rally if equity trade finds sellers, ahead of more dollars getting
sold over the next year as the U.S. administration deals with a public 'Strong Dollar
policy that is anything but wanted in reality.
The most robust periods of U.S. economic expansion have been on the back of a weaker
Usd, and with the amount of Usd based debt now in the market, it may be very difficult
for the dollar to do much more than reverse near-term oversold conditions on the
days that equity markets go lower. Traders however will be looking at the mid-term
signals that are still very much in short-dollar mode.
In the near-term, history tells us, global business cycle anticipation has more
of an impact on currency valuations than anything else; and that is what traders
are now starting to see reflected across global asset class charts. The four hour
cycles, the near-term support and resistance, linear trend-lines, and daily moving
average areas are all getting threatened at the same time.
If things break as Usd weakness it will be a technical reflection of a shift in
the global business cycle expectation. The U.S. expansion cycle historically comes
from a sustained period of Usd weakness, and that is what traders are about to see
over the mid-term, if global equity trade holds in the green.
The signals are there that the markets just cannot get the dollar index easily over
the 78.00 price range; it will not go up when other related markets are moving lower.
March may have been a near-term swing point, and if oil prices get back above $110
a barrel it may be that 75% of trader's attention needs to be on short-dollar set-ups,
following the global business cycle path, with 25% of attention going towards long-dollar
moves on days that equities move hard to the downside. TheLFB trade team will signal
and alert clients directly as things unfold.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Disclaimer And Disclosure
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Each investor should assess his or her financial situation and risk tolerance before
proceeding.
Information, analysis and methodologies provided on The London Forex Broadsheet(TM)
are for informational purposes only and should not be used as a replacement for
research by an individual investor or licensed investment professional. Neither
The London Forex Broadsheet nor any of its affiliates shall be liable for any errors,
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Forex Trading Explained In A Simple To Grasp Manner
Forex trading is becoming increasingly popular. Chances are you have heard of it but do not understand what it is or how it works. Or perhaps you have considered trying you r hand at Forex trading but have been a bit hesitant. It is a good idea to have a basic understanding of the principles behind Forex trading before getting involved in investing this way.
Forex trading actual is rather similar to baseball card trading that you may have done when you were younger. Of course you can still trade baseball cards now that you are an adult but it won't necessarily provide you with the success that Forex trading will. Of course there is always the chance that you will find that one rare card that has been eluding everyone and make a fortune.
Forex trading uses the same principles but involves the exchanging of foreign currencies rather than the exchange of one ball player for another. These principles will help you to understand how Forex trading works. In baseball card trading you want to trade the card that will provide you with a profit when you resell it. Forex trading works the same way.
Of course trading money sounds risky. But it actually is rather simple and there is no minimum that you need to involve unlike many other methods of investing. So the risk can be greatly reduced. You also are not limited to the time of the day that you can trade. Forex trading can be conducted 24 hours a day from Monday to Friday.
There is a level of excitement that is inherent with Forex trading. It is important to keep in mind that there are risks involved with Forex trading. This is real; you are not trading playing cards, you are exchanging money. Like any other investment it is always a good idea to start with a small amount then gradually increase the amount you are willing to invest. Remember to never invest more than you can afford to lose.
To explain this in a little more detail you imagine you want to trade dollars for Euros because you feel the value of the euro is increasing while the strength of the dollar is diminishing. You elect to trade 150 dollars for 100 Euros. Then you monitor the strength of the dollar versus the euro and when you are satisfied that the euro has strengthened in comparison to the dollar you trade back the Euros for the dollars. Only now you get'0 dollars for the 100 Euros. You have made a profit of $30 or 20%.
This example may be a little simplified but it helps explain the basic principles behind Forex trading. The example however is realistic. It is not unheard of to gain a 20% profit on Forex trading. In comparison to other investment this is a rather high profit ratio, particularly considering the minimum amount of risk involved.
The important thing to remember is that a little profit will fuel some excitement and may even convince you, you are invincible. Do not let a little success fool you. You need to use the same caution with Forex trading as you would at a poker game. Never get greedy and always know when to walk away. The worst thing you can do with any investment is to invest more than you can afford to lose. Remember what is really important and this influence how much you are willing to gamble. Regardless of the limited risk any investment is really just a matter of taking a gamble.
Forex trading actual is rather similar to baseball card trading that you may have done when you were younger. Of course you can still trade baseball cards now that you are an adult but it won't necessarily provide you with the success that Forex trading will. Of course there is always the chance that you will find that one rare card that has been eluding everyone and make a fortune.
Forex trading uses the same principles but involves the exchanging of foreign currencies rather than the exchange of one ball player for another. These principles will help you to understand how Forex trading works. In baseball card trading you want to trade the card that will provide you with a profit when you resell it. Forex trading works the same way.
Of course trading money sounds risky. But it actually is rather simple and there is no minimum that you need to involve unlike many other methods of investing. So the risk can be greatly reduced. You also are not limited to the time of the day that you can trade. Forex trading can be conducted 24 hours a day from Monday to Friday.
There is a level of excitement that is inherent with Forex trading. It is important to keep in mind that there are risks involved with Forex trading. This is real; you are not trading playing cards, you are exchanging money. Like any other investment it is always a good idea to start with a small amount then gradually increase the amount you are willing to invest. Remember to never invest more than you can afford to lose.
To explain this in a little more detail you imagine you want to trade dollars for Euros because you feel the value of the euro is increasing while the strength of the dollar is diminishing. You elect to trade 150 dollars for 100 Euros. Then you monitor the strength of the dollar versus the euro and when you are satisfied that the euro has strengthened in comparison to the dollar you trade back the Euros for the dollars. Only now you get'0 dollars for the 100 Euros. You have made a profit of $30 or 20%.
This example may be a little simplified but it helps explain the basic principles behind Forex trading. The example however is realistic. It is not unheard of to gain a 20% profit on Forex trading. In comparison to other investment this is a rather high profit ratio, particularly considering the minimum amount of risk involved.
The important thing to remember is that a little profit will fuel some excitement and may even convince you, you are invincible. Do not let a little success fool you. You need to use the same caution with Forex trading as you would at a poker game. Never get greedy and always know when to walk away. The worst thing you can do with any investment is to invest more than you can afford to lose. Remember what is really important and this influence how much you are willing to gamble. Regardless of the limited risk any investment is really just a matter of taking a gamble.
About the Author:
To learn more about Third Party Signal Providers visit Automated Forex Trading Systems.
Action Insight Daily Report 4-4-11
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Daily Report: Dollar and Yen Start the Week Mildly Lower
Dollar and yen open the week mildly lower as last week's risk appetite trend extends. Aussie edges to new record high above 1.04 against dollar while USD/CAD also dips through 0.962. The BOJ released the 'post-earthquake' Tankan survey today, separating responses received from February 24 to March 11 and from March 12 to March 31. While forward-looking business sentiment for the second quarter was weakened after the earthquake, the headline diffusion indices (DIs) was largely unchanged before and after the natural disaster.
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Saturday, 2 April 2011
Action Insight Weekly Report 4-2-11
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Yen Selloff Resumed as Carry Trade Returned
The Japanese yen was broadly sold off last week as it's back becoming the favored carry trade funding currency in the current risk seeking environment. Stocks was back above pre-Japan disaster higher with DOW breaking 12931 resistance on solid economic data. Canadian dollar was the strongest gainer last week as crude oil jumped through recent resistance of 106.95. Australian dollar was also strong and made new record high against US dollar. Among European majors, Euro remained the strongest one as supported by rate expectations. Swiss Franc was weak as it's seen as another candidate for funding carry trades. Meanwhile, Sterling was mixed on relatively uncertain rate outlook.
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Forex Market Updates & Commentary
Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- The Week Ahead from FXDD (PDF Report)
- EURUSD moves closer to key resistance at 1.4280
- Portugal’s Rating Cut to BBB-
- EURUSD moves to other extreme
- Feds Hoenig says rates should rise in late summer
- Fed’s Dudley on the Wires
- EURUSD squeezes higher to 100 and 200 hour MA area
| The Week Ahead from FXDD (PDF Report) Posted: 01 Apr 2011 01:10 PM PDT
To access PDF Report CLICK HERE |
| EURUSD moves closer to key resistance at 1.4280 Posted: 01 Apr 2011 11:38 AM PDT
The EURUSD has made new highs for the week and the shorts and new buying push the market higher. The key resistat at the 1.4280 level is getting closer. The level corresponds with the high from November 2010 (at 1.4281), the upper trendline and the downward trendline from the July 2008 high (connecting to the November 2009 high). The three lines come in near the area. I would expect good profit taking selling as the price moves closer and closer. Next week the ECB will tighten credit conditions. The expectations is a 25 basis point increase but the possibility exists for 50 basis points if the central bank wants to make a statement. The decision wll come on Thursday (along with the BOE interest rate decision) at 7:45 AM. Jean Claude Trichet will give his customary press briefing at 8:30 AM ET. |
| Posted: 01 Apr 2011 09:48 AM PDT Portugal’s Rating Cut to BBB- by Fitch, may be cut to junk. |
| Posted: 01 Apr 2011 09:10 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved to the other extreme outlined in the Opening Forex Call. The area of resistance was at the 1.4202, 1.4211 and 1.4220 levels. Each represented horizontal resistance or Remembered Lines. This area should find sellers in the rollercoaster day.
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| Feds Hoenig says rates should rise in late summer Posted: 01 Apr 2011 09:01 AM PDT
Hoenig is a hawk and his comments are reflective. |
| Posted: 01 Apr 2011 08:06 AM PDT Says:
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| EURUSD squeezes higher to 100 and 200 hour MA area Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:35 AM PDT
Anything can happen now with a break above the 200 hour MA. 1.4116 is now support as the trend move down today loses some of its moxie…. |
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